Matchup: #15 North Carolina (15-4, 5-1 ACC)
vs
Florida State Seminoles (10-9, 2-4 ACC)
Date/Time: Saturday, January 24, 2015 @ 2:00pm EST
Location: Dean E. Smith Center in Chapel Hill, NC
TV/Radio: ESPN or ESPN3 / Tar Heel Sports Network
#15 North Carolina welcomes the Florida State Seminoles to Chapel Hill Saturday afternoon seeking its fifth straight win and 10 wins out of its last 11 games. Carolina (15-4, 5-1 ACC) comes in to the game red-hot off a commanding win in Winston-Salem, Wednesday, 87-71 and looks to up its record to 6-1 in the conference by defeating the 'Noles in the Dean Dome. FSU (10-9, 2-4 ACC) last played on Monday night beating the Clemson Tigers 59-55 in Littlejohn Coliseum and Saturday's game versus UNC will already be its fifth road game in the conference this season. No other team in the ACC has played more than four road games at this point.
The Heels will be playing with a depleted backcourt as Coach Roy Williams announced on Friday that the fiesty freshman perimeter defender, Theo Pinson, would be out of action indefinitely due to a broken left foot. Pinson broke the fifth metatarsal in his left foot during Wednesday's victory over Wake Forest. As the injuries pile up for Carolina, Nate Britt, who suffered a nasty gash to his lip in the same game against Wake, received 15 stitches to sew up the wound and is listed as questionable for the FSU contest. Already down four other backcourt players (Joel Berry II - groin injury, Stillman White - stress reaction in foot, Luke Davis - stress fracture in foot, and Sasha Seymore - torn ACL), Carolina will look to team leader Marcus Paige, rising star Justin Jackson, and Mr. Everything J.P. Tokoto to carry the heavy backcourt load.
"Yeah, we're going to get tired," Tokoto remarked. "But it's something we go through in practice every day. Guys have gone down during practice and haven't had subs, so it's not going to be a shock. ...We'll be fine if we can just play smart."
The Tar Heels definitely will need to muster as much physical and mental toughness that it can as the Boys in Baby Blue enter a demanding stretch of basketball in the upcoming week. It all starts with handling the Seminoles at home on a rainy, Saturday afternoon because Carolina does not want to lose focus now with games against Syracuse, Louisville, and Virginia right around the corner.
Leonard Hamilton brings his Seminoles into town this year much weaker than many of his teams during his 13-year career at the helm of FSU. Last year saw the departure of seniors Ian Miller, Okaro White, and Robert Gilchrist while the team also has benn extremely affected by the loss of its leading scorer, Aaron Thomas, who was declared ineligible for the rest of the season. With all that said, it is clear that this year has been a struggle for the 'Noles. Both offensively and defensively, FSU has had its problems. The 'Noles are barely beating their opponents in scoring this year averaging 68.7 points/game to their opponents 68.1 pts/gm. Even with four players averaging in double-figures, it's the inability of the bench to produce that has hampered FSU all year. Juniors Montay Brandon and Devon Bookert are the leading scorers for the 'Noles netting 13.2 and 10.5 points per game, respectively. Bookert is the team's only bright spot from three-point range, knocking down 38.7 percent from 3. The rest of FSU from deep...not so good. No other player shoots above 27 percent from long-range. Carolina's backcourt may be thinner due to all the injuries, but Tokoto and Jackson can give UNC a tremendous opportunity to win if they can lock down Bookert from getting open shots and limit his effectiveness from the outside.
Coach Williams and his staff went to 2-3 zone on defense versus Wake Forest and, truthfully, the defensive switch worked pretty well.
"You have to get a little more creative and pray a little more," said Williams.
Carolina was dealing with foul trouble and a limited bench, so dropping into zone saved some fouls and gave Carolina a new wrinkle to play with. I would not be surprised at all for Coach Williams to go to this set more often on Saturday. Since FSU struggles mightily from the outside, a 2-3 zone could control UNC's foul trouble and keep its key players on the court. If the Heels can pull off the zone with the success it had against Wake, Carolina fans may start to see it more often, especially with the lineup running thin these days. Important to playing the 2-3 zone is also keeping the opposing point guard from penetrating to the foul line with his dribble.
FSU sports a pretty gifted freshman point guard, Xavier Rathan-Mayes, and the 'Noles will look for Rathan-Mayes to continue his decent play versus the Heels. Rathan-Mayes had a splendid game versus Clemson, arguably his best collegiate performance to date as he scored 17 points, dished out nine assists, pulled down five rebounds, and tallied four steals as he played all but one minute of action. It is imperative for Paige, Tokoto, and Jackson to keep Rathan-Mayes from dribble penetration and breaking down the zone when implemented. Keeping Rathan-Mayes at bay will go a long way in a Heels' march to victory. The 'Noles catalyst will be searching for another monster game as he salivates over a thinner UNC backcourt.
With Britt's ability to play up-in-the-air and Berry II out, Paige must handle most of the ball handling time for the Heels. He has been absolutely sensational dishing the rock in the last three games. His 19 assists over that time period has been wonderful to watch and has led to easy baskets for all of his teammates. Reducing turnovers and being even more efficient with the ball in his hands should help Carolina score in abundance against the 'Noles and guide Carolina to victory. Paige and the rest of the Heels will surely be trying to get the big men involved early. Kennedy Meeks and Brice Johnson were spectacular against Wake combining for 35 points on 16 of 22 shooting and the Heels feel like there is no reason why this dynamic duo can't do the same to FSU.
The challenge of replicating that performance will be overcoming Florida State's size. They are big boys and rank at #2 in the nation behind Kentucky in effective and average height. Everyone knows how big Kentucky looks on the court, so this FSU team stacks up quite nicely to the Wildcat team in terms of size. Skill level, not quite that much, but what FSU does have that could create some issues in the paint is three (yes...3!) 7-footers on the roster. Sophomores Boris Bojanovsky (7'3") and Michael Ojo (7'1") along with graduate student Kiel Turpin (7'0") serve as the tall pines for FSU and will cause quite a battle for the Heels at the rim. However, with this height advantage, shockingly, the 'Noles do not block shots at a high rate. One would think blocking shots would be a niche for the 7-footers, but that is not the case. Bojanovsky is the only FSU player averaging more than one block a game, so if the Carolina post players can get to the rim and get off their shots, don't expect FSU to be swatting too many of those shots back.
Offensively, with size in the post, when FSU can get the ball to the big men, the team usually does well. The 'Noles rank 25th nationally in 2-point field goad percentage (Brandon, Bojanovsky, and Turpin all average plus-60% from 2-pt range) and rarely do they have their shots blocked. Carolina must be physical, but not overly aggressive as staying out of foul trouble is key today. Meeks, Johnson, Isaiah Hicks, and Joel James must fight for position downlow all game long and keep the trees from getting too close to the basket on offense. If the Heels can do this, expect FSU to have a multitude of problems putting the ball in the hoop.
Freshman sensation Jackson will try to provide Carolina with another stellar outing. Carolina is 9-0 when Jackson scores in double-digits and the Texas native is poised to continue his gunslinging way. Coming off a 16-point and 17-point showing in back-to-back ACC games, look for Justin to take the game into his own hands and move another step in becoming a standout superstar for the Tar Heels.
Carolina leads the all-time series against the Seminoles, 46-12, winning 27 of the last 34 and 16 of the last 20. Of the games played in Chapel Hill, UNC has a 18-4 record (15-4 in the Smith Center) and has won 9 of its last 10 in its friendly confines. Roy Williams is 16-5 versus FSU as UNC head coach. FSU has defeated nine UNC teams that were ranked at the time and those nine wins are the most the Seminoles have against any ranked team in the school's history. Leonard Hamilton is the 11th all-time leader in ACC wins with 229 while Roy Williams is 7th all-time in ACC wins with 320. Hamilton is eight wins shy of becoming the all-time leader in wins at Florida State.
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