vs
#10 Louisville Cardinals (17-3, 5-2 ACC)
Date/Time: Saturday, January 31, 2015 @ 4:00pm EST
Location: KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, KY
TV/Radio: ESPN or ESPN3 / Tar Heel Sports Network
#13 North Carolina finishes out the month of January by traveling to battle the #10 Louisville Cardinals Saturday afternoon in a rematch of an outstanding, scintillating 72-71 Tar Heels victory in Chapel Hill three weeks ago. Carolina (17-4, 7-1 ACC) comes into play on a hot streak winning six consecutive ACC contests and hungry for more. Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks have been quite the tandem downlow for UNC helping the Heels to a stellar shooting percentage of 50.8 during the winning streak. The Cardinals are 3-1 in conference action since the loss to Carolina and the offensive production has stepped up recently from Rick Pitino's squad. Louisville (17-3, 5-2 ACC) leads the league shooting 53% from 2-pt range. Marcus Paige was the hero in the first game between the two teams as Paige's running scoop layup with 8.5 seconds remaining gave the Heels the win.
Carolina has been getting plenty of energy and superior play on the court from Johnson during this most recent stretch. Making 21 of his last 26 shots, Johnson has almost been perfect from the field and has raised his game significantly during ACC play. Always considered a true talent for the Heels, it has not been until lately that Johnson has gripped his mind around consistently producing on the offensive and defensive ends. Brice has four double-doubles in his last six games. His work with Meeks in the paint has been extraordinary. Meeks has two double-doubles in ACC play and comes in shooting a blistering 57.8% from the field. The way this dynamic duo works the high-low game is special to watch.
Assistant Coach Hubert Davis spoke about this during the Monday radio show saying, "They have really good chemistry. Both of them can shoot the ball really well from 15 feet. And one thing they're really improving on is chemistry defensively." "They're better more consistently, particular on ball screens," Davis added.
The North Carolina guards have become accustomed to seeing the big men run the court and get in position downlow early and often so that they can deliver the pass inside quickly allowing Johnson and Meeks to score at will against the defense. Today, versus Louisville, look for the big men to make a statement right from the get-go and take the Louisville crowd out of the game (It's a scheduled "White Out" in the KFC Yum! Center today). The Heels, on paper, have some distinct advantages when it comes to action in the lane.
Rebounding is the biggest statistical advantage that Carolina enters the game with on Saturday. The Heels own a +10.1 rebounding margin against its opponents this season averaging 43.4 rebounds/game. Meeks leads the Heels with 8.3 rpg while Johnson is a close second with 7.9 rpg. Offensive rebounding has flourished for Carolina; however, on the defensive end, the Heels have shown a slight weakness by giving up 12.7 offensive boards a game to its opponent. With that said, the Cardinals have struggled significantly this year rebounding the ball on both ends of the court. Offensive rebounding has been poor for the Cardinals, sitting ninth in the ACC averaging just 30.7% as well as eleventh in the conference on the defensive boards (opponents snatch 33.7% of their missed shots against Louisville). Expect Carolina to be all over the glass Saturday working the numbers to their favor and taking control of the game on the backboards. Carolina has been shooting the ball so well lately, if the Heels are able to also corral its misses at a high percentage, that would give the Heels another offensive source by adding second-chance points to the scoring output.
Louisville brings a wealth of talent as the Heels know very well. During the last meeting, it was the Louisville defense that came in so highly touted. Since Jan. 10, the Cardinals have flashed quite a bit of offense against the ACC. Over the past two games, Louisville is shooting a combined 61.5% from the field and has buried half of its three-pointers (12-of-24). Out of its 20 games, the Cardinals have shot above 47% in half of them (six times in the last eight games). Terry Rozier has been spectacular this season scoring at a 18.1 ppg clip. Even more eye-popping is his 20 points per game in ACC games which ranks as second in the league. The sophomore guard is sure to test the Carolina defense early as the Heels have given up back-to-back huge games from opposing guards. Florida State's Xavier Mathan-Rayes and Syracuse's Trevor Cooney scored a combined 63 points on the Tar Heels over the course of the last two games, so look for Louisville to utilize Rozier on many of its offensive possessions. He is their bread and butter right now. The Cardinals offer more scoring down the lineup as well. Montrezl Harrell averages 14.9 ppg while Chris Jones and Wayne Blackshear are the other Cardinals averaging in double figures with 13.4 and 11.8, respectively. Jones was red-hot in Louisville's last game versus Boston College netting a career-high 28 points to go along with six rebounds. Jones' quickness and defensive prowess (3rd in ACC in steals with 2.0 per game) could be quite a handful for the Heels, especially if Carolina is looking at another 20-turnover game.
The Heels need to become more consistent handling the basketball as they followed up a season-low (shoot, a Roy Williams-era low) five turnovers versus Florida State with a season-high 20 cough-ups against Syracuse. Being smart with the ball and not trying to make the highlight reel pass has really been the issue. Opponents usually don't aggressively take the ball away from the Heels, it is poor decision-making and careless passing that costs the Heels points. The Heels have almost as many total turnovers as its opponents (270 TO's versus 277 TO's from the opposition). And, against a top-ten team in Louisville, there is no margin for error. The Cardinals average 9.3 steals a game and are always getting their hands into the passing lanes and causing as much chaos on defense as possible. Possessions are like gold and the Heels must protect the ball at all costs if they are to leave the KFC Yum! Center with a "W".
Protecting the ball could be all the Heels need to gain the upper-hand Saturday against the Cardinals, specifically since Carolina is shooting the ball at such a high rate right now. With the 50.8 percent mark from the field during the current six-game winning streak I mentioned earlier, Carolina has started to string multiple games of good shooting together. That's called a habit, folks. Meeks and Johnson have been delivering solid performances inside while Marcus Paige leads Carolina in scoring at 14.1 ppg. Paige is also scorching the nets from long range, draining 52-of-133 three-pointers (39.1%) and has employed more of an effort to get to the rim in recent weeks. Nate Britt showcased his shooting talents against Syracuse, nailing four 3-pointers on his way to a career-high 17 points.
The offensive efficiency has led the Heels to average a solid 80.0 points per game as a team and Carolina will once again look to speed up the pace on the Cardinals. The quality shots the Heels have been getting all season long, and definitely during ACC games, can be credited to good passing. Yes, the Heels make dumb mistakes here and there, but they generally are able to get good shots for themselves based solely off of a firm understanding of where and how to get teammates the ball effectively. Carolina boasts 372 total assists, an average of 17.7 per game which is 5.2 assists per game more than the Cardinals bring to the court. J.P. Tokoto and Paige have definitely been the catalysts behind this effort leading the Heels in assists with a combined 175 dimes. If the Heels can continue to dish the ball as exceptionally as they have been doing throughout the season, it will be hard for the Cardinals to avoid another great shooting performance from the Heels.
Carolina is searching for its first 8-1 ACC start since the 2004-2005 National Championship squad started out to such a fast start in the conference.. North Carolina holds the all-time series lead over Louisville, winning 10 of 13 over the Cardinals. Today's game will be only the third time UNC has played the Cardinals in Louisville, both of the other occasions were Tar Heel losses (27-19 in January 1929 and 97-80 in December 1999). Carolina will be looking to turn its luck around in Louisville as the Heels have not fared well in this city over time. Including NCAA Tournament and neutral site games, the Heels are 4-7 overall in Louisville. However, on the other side of things, Rick Pitino has never beaten Carolina in his career. Both teams will be competing hard for another ACC win which could firmly plant either team in the Top-4 of the conference coming down the stretch.
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