Matchup: #18 North Carolina (12-4, 2-1 ACC)
vs
NC State Wolfpack (12-5, 3-1 ACC)
Date/Time: Wednesday, January 14, 2015 @ 7:00pm EST
Location: PNC Arena in Raleigh, NC
TV/Radio: ESPN2 or ESPN3 / Tar Heel Sports Network
Tobacco Road was an icy one this morning, but #18 North Carolina and NC State will heat that baby up tonight. In the 227th meeting of this intense rivalry and storied tradition, both teams come into the game riding high after its most recent victory. Carolina erased a 13-point deficit Saturday afternoon in its upset of #5 Louisville 72-71 in the Dean E. Smith Center and the Wolfpack stunned the Dookies 87-75 Sunday night behind an incredible 55% FG shooting effort (including 10 of 16 from 3-pt range). NC State finds itself up against another area code rival as it finishes off a tough three-game stretch versus ranked opponents (Virginia, Dook, and UNC) and tries to build upon its 3-1 start in ACC play. The Tar Heels are seeking their seventh win in eight games and second straight road win in the conference.
Carolina (12-4, 2-1 ACC) enters enemy territory this evening a year after Marcus Paige and TJ Warren went back and forth in the PNC Arena all night until Paige and the Heels prevailed 85-84 in overtime. Paige scored 35 points and Warren poured in 36 in a rousing game that defined what this rivalry is all about...players making plays. Warren entered the NBA Draft after last season, so NC State has had to learn to rely on a different bag of tricks. This season, Coach Mark Gottfried, has slowly begun to put the pieces together and the Wolfpack are playing its best ball of the year. Led in scoring by junior Alabama-transfer, Trevor Lacey (16.9 ppg -4th in ACC), State may have found the offensive spark that they need moving forward. Lacey used a 21-point and five 3's performance to end the Blue Devils undefeated streak. However, NC State is not a one-man team at all. Just like Carolina, the Pack can find points from multiple players down the roster. Senior shooting guard Ralston Turner owns a double-digit scoring average (13.3 ppg) and he nailed four three-pointers versus Dook Sunday night in Raleigh. Lacey and Turner serve as another dynamic duo on the perimeter, both players shooting over 41.7% from long-distance, that could give Carolina's perimeter defense fits.
"If you watched that game (Sunday) and didn't think they are a really good basketball team, then you're watching a different sport than I am," said UNC Coach Roy Williams during his Monday radio show. "That's part of their game. What they did defensively may have been more impressive than making 10 out of 16."
The Tar Heels remember the painful Notre Dame game last week in which the Irish drained 10 3-pointers, so there is no doubt that Roy Williams and the UNC coaching staff hves preached perimeter defense over and over the last couple of days. Carolina did a much better job late against Louisville, defending the guards aggressively and not giving an inch of space. Louisville, however, did not bring in a great long-range shooting team as Notre Dame did and the one that NC State will bring to the table Wednesday night. Paige, Nate Britt, Theo Pinson, and J.P. Tokoto will need to bring a stellar defensive effort to the court against the Wolfpack perimeter shooters and limit that particular part of State's arsenal. Even though the Irish did hit 10 3's against the Heels, they shot a combined 10 of 23 and opponents this season are shooting a measly 26.4% from behind the arc. That type of effort will be needed against State's sharpshooters.
Besides NC State's three-man perimeter attack, another place where the Wolfpack succeed is defending the low post by way of the blocked shot. The Wolfpack do an incredible job of swatting shots, blocking a eye-popping 16% of its opponents 2-point attempts, an impressive 6.3 blocks per game. Going up against Carolina big men Kennedy Meeks, Brice Johnson, and Joel James is no easy task. The Tar Heels have shown throughout the season that they can get the job done in the paint time and time again. Standing in Carolina's way tonight will be BeeJay Anya (slimmed down this year just like Meeks) who is tallying 3.1 blocks per outing in less than 20 minutes of play a game. His teammate Kyle Washington is Anya's partner in crime downlow, not as efficient blocking shots as Anya but pretty daggone good in his own right. The key for Carolina in the paint tonight is to be strong with the basketball and take it right to the chests of the State defenders. Meeks has not shown the lift in his jump recently, so look for Kennedy to utilize more fundamentals and try to get the defenders off-balance and maybe in foul trouble since Meeks is starting to shoot free throws much better (68.7% on the season). Many critics have spoken early in the season about Brice Johnson's tendency to go soft if he misses his first shot of the game. Look for the Heels to try to get Brice an easy one, maybe an alley-oop as in the Louisville game, to jump-start his energy and effectiveness.
One way the Heels can counteract State's shot-blocking efforts is to continue its dominance on the offensive rebounding front. Carolina has controlled the offensive boards all season long, averaging 17 offensive boards a game. Usually, in order to block a shot, State will have to bring someone from the far side into the picture to attempt a block. This would leave Carolina open and in position for an easy offensive rebound and put-back. Crashing the boards and remaining physically tough when boxing out will go a long way in helping the Heels pick up a road victory this evening and it would eliminate any advantage the Wolfpack has coming in in the blocked shot category.
Pesky speed demon, Anthony "Cat" Barber, is NC State's third leading scorer (11.4 ppg) and the team's top assist man at 3.6/game. Perimeter defense has been on the rise for the Tar Heels and, besides defending the three-point shot, Carolina must also keep Barber in front of them and not allow him to scoop to the hoop and open up jumpers for his teammates. Paige, Britt, and Berry will have a tough task slowing down the "Cat", but it is imperative to slow down the State point guard because Gottfried's team feeds off of his energy in running the show.
Paige joked to his teammates after hitting the game-winning layup versus Louisville that he was "back." The junior sensation has been known so far in his college career to get up for big, rivalry games. Last year's 35 point performance in Raleigh was a prime example. Look for Paige to break out in a big way tonight and contribute on both ends of the floor. State is holding opponents to 31% from 3-point land and Paige leads the Heels in 3-pt average with 35.2% makes per game. Paige has been suffering from plantar fasciitis over the past week so driving to the basket may be somewhat limited. Nailing a few 3's early would do a lot to heal the Carolina 3-point shooting woes of late and could quite possibly open up lanes to the basket for the perimeter players to attack. Britt has been shooting great as of late, knocking down two big 3's against Louisville and leading the Heels with a 91.4% free-throw percentage. Successful Carolina perimeter offense is definitely needed to combat the inside presence of NC State, but to also keep State from packing the paint which could create space for dribble penetration from the Heels.
Carolina leads the all-time series over the Wolfpack, 150-76 and have won three in a row in the series. The Heels have won 16 of the last 17, 22 of the last 24, and 39 of their last 48 games against NC State. Carolina's record all-time against NC State in Raleigh is 59-45, holding a 11-4 mark over the Pack in PNC Arena. As mentioned earlier, Carolina won its only other road ACC game this year, against Clemson, and Roy Williams looks to continue those winning ways as he has an ACC road winning percentage of .649 (second best in ACC history behind Vic Bubas of Dook who had .667 percentage from 1960-69).
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