vs
#14 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (14-1, 2-0 ACC)
Date/Time: Monday, January 5, 2015 @ 7:00pm EST
Location: Dean E. Smith Center in Chapel Hill, NC
TV/Radio: ESPN2 or ESPN3 or ESPN / Tar Heel Sports Network
ACC Basketball returns to Chapel Hill Monday night as #18 North Carolina hosts its conference home-opener versus #14 Notre Dame in a battle of Top-20 teams. Notre Dame (14-1, 2-0 ACC) comes into this matchup sporting a 10-game winning streak, but will be playing its first road game of the season. Carolina (11-3, 1-0 ACC) has had its share of travel throughout the non-conference portions of the schedule; however, tonight, the Heels look to extend its own winning streak to six games as they welcome the first of two straight conference games against ranked opponents (UNC will face #5 Louisville Saturday afternoon). Both clubs have started well in conference play with UNC defeating Clemson soundly on Saturday, 74-50. Notre Dame has won both of its league games, but needed Double OT Saturday afternoon to defeat Georgia Tech in South Bend.
UNC will serve as the Fighting Irish's toughest opponent to date as the Tar Heels bring a step up in competition to Mike Brey's club. Nine of Notre Dame's 14 wins have come against teams ranked no higher than 198 in the nation. And of those nine wins, five of them are versus teams ranked outside the Top 300. This certainly does not mean the Irish won't be able to hold their own in the Dean Dome, only that tonight's game becomes the first true test of a team that has started the season with the second-most victories (14) in the school's history and is one win away from tying its winning output of last season.
Last year was a dismal year for the Fighting Irish, finishing 15-17 in a year in which the team sorely missed its star, Jerian Grant due to suspension. But, this campaign, Grant is back and he is back in a big way. He leads the Irish with 17.9 points/game and 6.2 assists/game and has been the major offensive sparkplug this team seriously needed. Grant is shooting a torrid 53.1% from the field and has been a handful for opposing defenders, especially on this jaw-dropping jam Saturday versus the Yellow Jackets.
Carolina will try to bring its unrelenting defensive pressure that has been the key and staple to its success this year. Perimeter defense against Notre Dame is going to be crucial. The Irish light it up from outside shooting 40.4% from behind the arc this season. Notre Dame has three shooters that average over 40% 3-pt shooting (minimum of 50 attempts) in the likes of Pat Connaughton (44.9%), Demetrius Jackson (44.2%), and Steve Vasturia (40.0%). The Heels have done a great defensive job this year of closing the gap on perimeter shooters and causing all sorts of problems for the opposing offenses. Holding the opposition to 24.9% from 3-pt land is a stat to be proud of, but tonight the Heels must continue to pressure the outside shooters into bad shots so that the big men downlow can gobble up the rebounds.
Carolina has rarely run into a team that averages more points per game, but that is the situation heading into tonight's matchup. Due to UNC's classic style of play, one expects the above-80 average from the Heels, but Notre Dame has delivered big time scoring this season and is averaging 85.9 points/game. Four of its five starters average more points/game than any UNC starter, led by Grant's 17.9/game mark. Although, this stat can be deceiving because Notre Dame has little bench production to fall back on. Carolina is a much more versatile group up and down the depth chart and utilizes its depth nicely. As mentioned in my earlier posts, over the last five games, a different Tar Heel has led the team in scoring. Justin Jackson and Marcus Paige both have started to find their shots much more consistently than during the beginning of the year while Kennedy Meeks and Brice Johnson have continued to bring strong efforts inside the paint throughout the season. It's the bench, though, that has delivered time and time again. The Heels' reserves play well on offense and exceptionally well on defense. Nate Britt, Theo Pinson, Isaiah Hicks, Joel Berry II, and Joel James have become a very solid second-five group for UNC Coach Roy Williams and all of these five reserves are averaging above 10 minutes a game (except James who is close with 9.1 min/game). The reserves' ability to continue the suffocating defense has been a major reason for Carolina's success in keeping the starters rested and not winded for late-game situations. And the depth advantage for the Heels, on a night where both teams just played Saturday, could have some impact late in this one. No player on Notre Dame's bench averages 15 minutes of game play where Carolina has two (almost 3) bench players that do so. Look for Coach Williams to use frequent substitutions as a gameplan tonight; a plan that just may lead Carolina to victory.
Two impressive stats for Notre Dame that will challenge the Heels are the Fighting Irish's ability to protect the ball on offense and its effectiveness in not fouling its opponent. Notre Dame has the third lowest turnover percentage in the country at only 9.5 a game (compared to Carolina's 13.1 average). It will be difficult to turnover the Irish, but clamping down on defense and pressuring the perimeter could lead to more miscues than Notre Dame is used to and help the Heels get out on the fast break. Just like Clemson, the Fighting Irish are stingy on fouls. The boys from South Bend have held opponents to only 181 free throw attempts the whole season (that's just 12.1 attempts per game). In contrast, as I pointed out the other night, Carolina fouls much more often as opponents have attempted 333 free throws against the Heels in 14 games (an average of 23.8 FT attempts per game). With so much of a disparity between teams, Carolina will need to remain tough and aggressive with defensive pressure in hopes of draining the Irish's energy which would, in turn, lead Notre Dame to foul more on its on defensive end.
Just as the Big East used to do with its conference scheduling, throughout ACC league play this year there will be games scheduled for Saturday and Monday. And, as the Tar Heels and Fighting Irish will experience tonight, teams will have to play the Saturday-Monday double at some point. That means less than a 48-hour turnaround between conference games which could provide more intrigue to conference matchups as the season progresses down the line during the 18-game league slate.
Carolina is 18-4 all-time versus the Fighting Irish, winning the last five games (including both games last year) and seven of the last eight against them. Notre Dame's last win over the Heels came in January 1992 and never has the Irish won in Chapel Hill. Roy Williams is 3-0 versus the Leprechauns and Mike Brey is 0-3 versus the Tar Heels.
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