Matchup: #15 North Carolina (18-7, 8-4 ACC)
vs
#4 Duke Blue Devils (22-3, 9-3 ACC)
Date/Time: Wednesday, February 18, 2015 @ 9:00pm EST
Location: Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, NC
TV/Radio: ESPN or ESPN3 or ACC Network / Tar Heel Sports Network
It's that time of year again, the time when the sports nation is completely focused on one game emanating from Tobacco Road. It's the Battle of the Blues 2015: Round 1 - Carolina vs Duke and tonight's road trip eight miles down US Highway 15-501 is literally and figuratively a slippery slope for the Tar Heels. #15 UNC (18-7, 8-4 ACC) is hoping to bounce back nicely from a defeat at Pittsburgh on Valentine's Day and, at the same time, hold on to a top four spot in the Atlantic Coast Conference. With three losses in its last four games, Carolina can ill afford another lackluster energy effort on the court. Carolina's defense took a step back against Pitt so it is imperative that the Heels buckle down defensively and bring back that toughness and grit that started the conference slate with a 7-1 record. The rivalry game with Duke may be what the doctor ordered to put Carolina's mindset back into full gear. A high-octane environment in Cameron Indoor Stadium and the fact that both teams usually bring their "A" game to the matchup should be enough fuel to power the Heels on this icy, cold evening in North Carolina. The fourth-ranked Blue Devils (22-3, 9-3 ACC) has been trending up the last few weeks and has once again placed itself in contention for a number-one seed in the NCAA Tournament. Since losing back-to-back games to NC State and Miami in January, the Blue Devils have reeled off eight wins in its last nine games behind a potent and lethal offensive attack. Led by freshman sensation Jahlil Okafor and his 18.2 points per game, Duke has turned up the heat on its offensive production as the year has progressed and the Blue Devils have been unstoppable recently.
Cameron Indoor will be at a fever pitch from tip to the final buzzer and the way the game starts on the court could be a telling sign of where it ends up. The Tar Heels have had two straight games where they have fallen behind early due to sluggish starts, 7-2 to Boston College and 10-0 to Pittsburgh, with Carolina going 1-1 in those games. There is absolutely no way the Heels can fall behind by double figures to Duke in Cameron and expect to come away with a victory. Duke has been tremendously poised since that eye-popping home defeat to Miami in January and eagerly awaits a Carolina slip in effort so that it can pounce. It will be important for Carolina to score early and often as getting some points quickly on the board in a hostile environment could go a long way in boosting the Heels' confidence and enhance their body language on the floor.
Duke's defense ranks middle of the pack in the ACC this season and are outside the top 100 in effective field goal percentage defense, turnover defense, block defense, and 2-pt field goal defense. So, right there, a gameplan for the Heels can consist of using its size to push the Duke defenders back and create easier baskets in the paint. With Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks on the blocks, Carolina has had pretty good success in the paint this year. Johnson and Meeks are averaging a combined 24.9 ppg and the Heels will need a prime-time performance from these two downlow to offset Okafor and Justise Winslow. Marcus Paige leads the Heels in scoring at 13.9 ppg but he is coming off a dismal shooting performance on the road at Pitt. Now is the time for Paige to shine as Carolina must find a way to get Paige more involved and open for clean looks at the basket. Getting Paige off to a hot start offensively (especially from 3-pt range) could indicate very good things for Carolina.
Justin Jackson, freshman forward for the Heels, will be playing in his first game on the road in Durham. Jackson has started every single game for Carolina, averaging 9.8 ppg to go with 3.6 rebounds per game, and it will interesting to see how he responds to the atmosphere in this high-impact rivalry game. His maturity has seemed to blossom recently but he definitely still has those rookie moments and as a starter against Duke in Cameron Indoor, Jackson will dive head first into the shark tank tonight. If the Heels can get a decent scoring game from Justin (let's say 14-18 points) expect Carolina to be right in it for the win.
Duke has some freshmen of its own. Coach Mike Krzyzewski starts three of them. Okafor, Winslow, and Tyus Jones have been in the starting lineup for all 25 of Duke's games. And, these guys are not in the lineup just to look pretty...they contribute mightily to Duke's all-around performance. Duke is the only team in the NCAA that has three freshmen that average double figures on the season (Okafor - 18.2 ppg, Winslow - 11.4 ppg, and Jones 11.3 ppg) and over half of Duke's offense comes from these first-year players (50.9% of the offense to be exact). With 9.3 rpg and a 66.5% field goal percentage, Okafor is trying to become the first freshmen to lead Duke in points, rebounds, and FG percentage in the same season.
Quinn Cook brings perimeter offense to the table as well as he has made at least one three-pointer in 35 straight games. Cook's lethal shooting mixed with Jones' outside shooting talent makes for a very formidable tag team from long range. Carolina must bring its toughest and most effective defensive performance to the court tonight as Duke will look to hit the open three at any second. Expect Okafor to get plenty of touches in the paint and hopefully Carolina can force Okafor into bad decisions as he is prone to turnovers (61st in the ACC in turnover ratio). Carolina cannot afford to get into any foul trouble this evening but if they decide to hack away on Okafor at anytime, the Duke center is a miserable 57.1% from the charity stripe. Carolina would rather foul the big man than the Duke guards as Cook and Jones have been almost automatic from the free throw line. Over the last 15 games, Cook is shooting 91.3% (42-of-46) and Jones is shooting 91.4% (64-of-70) from the line. Carolina needs to focus on moving their feet defensively, fighting through screens, getting hands in the face of every shooter, and making it extremely tough for Duke to get open. The way Carolina can defend is going to control what happens in this game. If Carolina is up to the challenge defensively and causing turnovers, there is no reason to think Carolina cannot be successful in this one.
J.P. Tokoto is the "X-factor" for the Heels. Tokoto began the season playing with tremendous confidence and leading the team in assists, but as the last couple of weeks have unfolded, he has regressed in his performance. J.P. began turning the ball over at a ridiculously high rate back during the Syracuse game and he seems somewhat gun-shy on a lot of his ball handling and passing in recent game. He has not started the last two contest. Carolina is going to need a big game from the Tar Heel junior, whether it's in a starting role or off the bench. The Heels are hoping Tokoto can respond to his most recent struggles and get back to playing the exciting and electrifying basketball that they have grown to love in Chapel Hill. His effectiveness on the court and his confidence in decision-making is something to watch during the game.
Carolina leads the all-time series with Duke, 133-105 and have played more games against the Blue Devils than any other opponent (the rivalry dates back to 1920). Carolina and Duke split the two meeting last year with each team winning on its home court. The Blue Devils have won eight out of the last 11 meetings (since 2009-2010) after UNC won six of seven meetings from 2006-2009. Duke has won four of the last five meetings in Durham after Carolina had won four straight in Cameron from 2006-2009. Duke leades the series 51-47 in Durham, 42-35 in Cameron Indoor Stadium. Roy Williams is 5-6 against Duke in Durham (all as the UNC Head Coach).
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