Matchup: #15 North Carolina (19-8, 9-5 ACC)
vs
North Carolina State Wolfpack (16-11, 7-7 ACC)
Date/Time: Tuesday, February 24, 2015 @ 8:00pm EST
Location: Dean E. Smith Center in Chapel Hill, NC
TV/Radio: ACC Network or ESPN3 / Tar Heel Sports Network
Whether you've been watching the snowflakes fall all day from the comfort of your living room, or through the windowpanes of your local workplace, or even if you have braved the elements and had some fun out in the cold, white stuff, one can be sure that tonight's matchup between North Carolina and North Carolina State has been on your mind throughout. Well, the time for talkin' is over and the time for ballin' is upon us.
The 15th-ranked Tar Heels welcome the Wolfpack to Chapel Hill this evening for the 228th installment between these two rivals and, even though, the Pack has not beaten UNC in Chapel Hill since 2003, the heated clashes have produced a string of exciting and nail-biting affairs of late. Expect emotions to be at a fever pitch inside the Dean E. Smith Center as Carolina (19-8, 9-5 ACC) will be searching for its 20th victory of the season (42nd time in 45 years) and 10th win in the ACC which would pull the Heels back into a tie for 4th-place in the conference with Louisville. NC State (16-11, 7-7 ACC) finds itself wedged in a three-way tie for 7th place in the ACC and a big win over Carolina would launch the Pack up the standings and into a much greater position for an NCAA tournament berth. The Tar Heels edged NC State earlier this season in Raleigh during mid-January, 81-79, in what was a hard-fought battle all the way, and who can forget the epic contest last season when the two teams produced an overtime classic with the Heels nipping State 85-84.
A common theme to both of those Tar Heel victories was Marcus Paige. The Preseason ACC Player of the Year and First Team All-American may not be scoring the ball at the tip-top level he was expected to coming into this year but, boy, do not tell that to Wolfpack fans. Paige has made it his mission to perform at the highest level against the rivals from Raleigh. In his last two games against the Pack, Marcus has scored 58 points on 17-of-30 shooting (an astounding 12-of-17 from 3pt range), 14 assists, 11 rebounds, six steals, one single turnover, and 12-of-14 from the free throw line. Quite a stat line for the Tar Heel leading scorer. In his total five games versus the Pack, Paige is averaging 18.8 ppg while shooting 44% from the field. To put his play against State in comparison to other games, Marcus only averages 12.7 ppg and 40% from the field against other teams.
"He goes out every night trying to give it his best, give it his all," teammate J.P. Tokoto said Monday. "It may be something against State that he just feels. Hopefully that is the case and tomorrow he's feeling it."
Carolina will need Paige, who is averaging a team-high 13.6 ppg, to continue his hot streak against State and serve as a key perimeter weapon to a balanced Tar Heel scoring attack that has consisted all season of monster games from the dynamic duo of Kennedy Meeks and Brice Johnson.
Meeks and Johnson have carried the load throughout the year for the Heels. They stack up right behind Paige in the points per game column (Meeks 12.9 ppg and Johnson 12.8 ppg) and their aggressiveness and grit in the paint continues to excel as the season progresses. This season, Carolina has dominated the opposition in points in the paint and the tandem of Meeks and Johnson deserves credit for a big chunk of that offensive scoring output. For example, over the course of the last two games versus Dook and Georgia Tech, UNC has outscored the opposition 108-70 in the points in the paint category. A very impressive, eye-popping statistic that will need to stay true to form against the Wolfpack for the Heels to wrangle another victory away from State. In the matchup earlier this season, Meeks logged a double-double of 15 points and 10 rebounds. However, Johnson was limited with foul trouble, eventually fouling out, but still produced 10 points and seven rebounds in only 18 minutes of action. Keeping Brice on the court and out of foul trouble gives Carolina an even bigger advantage in the paint and gives UNC an edge that could definitely lead the Heels to another ACC win.
Carolina has lost four of its last six games while NC State comes into tonight's matchup winners of two straight and playing good basketball after a rough end to January and start to February. Perimeter offense has powered Coach Mark Gottfried's Pack all season long. Trevor Lacey, Ralston Turner, and Cat Barber have been a flashy trio combining to average 40.9 ppg on 44.2% field-goal shooting along with 10.7 rebounds per game. A statistic that is worth keeping an eye on, is whether these three guys can all score in double-figures. If so, State is 6-2 in those games and if the trio ups the ante and produces a combined 45 points, State is 8-1 in those contests. Lacey has been on a roll as of late, leading State with 16.4 ppg and scoring in double figures in 12 of his last 13 games. Barber has been even more on fire over his last five contests, contributing 18.6 points per outing.
"Those three guys out front...really are a load for us on the defensive end of the floor," said UNC Coach Roy Williams during his Monday night radio show. "We need to play extremely well. We need to and we want to."
Barber will have to bring a better effort than last time out against Carolina as the Heels held Cat to just five points, four assists, two rebounds, and four turnovers. Lacey and Turner combined for 39 points in that game versus the Heels, but those points came really late in the game. So, the Wolfpack will need a full 40 minutes out of their stars to have a shot at the upset in Chapel Hill.
While State's perimeter offense provided by Lacey, Turner, and Barber gets most of the attention, it's the emergence of freshman Abdul Malik-Abu and his rebounding efforts that have turned some heads. Abu has taken over the starting center role from BeeJay Anya and he ranks sixth in the league in defensive rebounding percentage on a team that ranks outside the Top 100 in the nation in that category. He and Anya team up with Kyle Washington as an extremely formidable frontcourt for the Pack. With State struggling to stop the three (oppponents shoot 33.3% from beyond the arc) and force turnovers (only cause 10.2 turnovers a game), a dependable front line is what the Pack needs to succeed on defense. Tonight will be imperative for State's frontcourt to defend in the paint and challenge the Tar Heel big men on each possession. If the Pack can limit the Heels' success in the paint, that should open a door for NC State to leave Chapel Hill with a W.
Both teams have "X" factors that could sway the game in either direction. Carolina's "X" factor is J.P. Tokoto as his superb play has really picked up in the last couple of games. After suffering through a tough stretch during the recent UNC woes, Tokoto ignited his game against Dook and kept that train rolling versus Georgia Tech. J.P. has exuded a tremendous amount of confidence and stepped up his energy in an effort to give Carolina an additional lift that the Heels were missing for quite some time. Over the last two games, Tokoto has scored 27 points, grabbed 14 rebounds, dished out 12 assists, and had only two turnovers. In the three games before these last two, Tokoto scored a combined 14 points, 13 rebounds, and 11 assists. His production is ramping up and if J.P. can deliver another high-flying, energetic, aggressive game against the Pack, look for Carolina to take care of business in the Dean Dome.
NC State's "X" factor is 6-foot-8 forward Lennard Freeman. Freeman has been a solid contributor to State's efforts this season but his play has picked up as of late. Rebounding, defending, and passing are all key attributes to Freeman's game and Coach Gottfried has taken notice. Freeman's minutes have increased recently and State is 9-2 when Freeman plays 20 or more minutes. Eight of the Wolfpack's 16 wins have come when Freeman leads the team in rebounding, only losing once when Lennard led the team in that category. When Freeman pulls down more than eight rebounds, State is almost perfect with a 7-1 record in those instances. Keep a close watch on Freeman's performance this evening versus the Heels. If his minutes tick up towards 20 and he is rebounding well, that should be a good indication that NC State is in perfect position to pick up a huge road win.
The Tar Heels lead the all-time series with NC State, 151-76. This includes four wins in a row, 17 of the last 18, 23 of the last 25, and 40 of its last 49 games against the Pack. Coach Williams is 28-2 as a head coach versus State (5-0 at Kansas and 23-2 at UNC). Carolina is 73-22 versus State in Chapel Hill, 23-5 in the Dean Dome. Williams is 11-0 coaching against State in Chapel Hill in his 12 years at the helm of the Heels.
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