vs
#1 Kentucky Wildcats (10-0, 0-0 SEC)
Date/Time: Saturday, December 13, 2014 @ 12:00pm EST
Location: Rupp Arena in Lexington, KY
TV/Radio: CBS / Tar Heel Sports Network
Storied rivalries exude passion, intensity, and excitement...all of these characteristics, and more, are embodied by two true blue bloods of college basketball. North Carolina and Kentucky, two of the three winningest teams in history, will collide in a Saturday afternoon marquee showdown on Rupp Arena's legendary court. Two programs that have long been considered standard bearers of the sport rekindle an intense non-conference tilt that will have all eyes fixated on Lexington. The #21-ranked Tar Heels travel to the "Bluegrass State" in search of its 14th win over a #1-ranked Associated Press squad while the Wildcats focus on overcoming a season-ending injury to one of its leaders and staying undefeated.
Carolina (6-2, 0-0 ACC) will be shooting for the upset Saturday as it matches up with an extremely good Kentucky team. The Wildcats (10-0, 0-0 SEC) have looked very impressive so far this season by dominating the opposition with size, strength and aggressive defense. The Tar Heels have not encountered, as of yet, the overall height and sheer athleticism that Kentucky brings to the table. Carolina post players, mainly Kennedy Meeks and Brice Johnson, will go toe-to-toe with freshman Karl-Anthony Towns and a pair of 7-footers downlow (Dakari Johnson and Willie Cauley-Stein). Towns has been a beast on the boards but where he, and the rest of the Wildcats, excels is in swatting the opposing teams' shots. Towns leads Kentucky with 28 blocks already (that's 2.8 blocks/game). Kentucky, as a team, blocks more than 25 percent of its opponents' 2-pt field goals! That number is a definite eye-opener and could be a big factor in stymieing Carolina's offensive production. Meeks, Johnson, and other Tar Heels must use their own athleticism and fundamentals to position themselves closer to the basket and take it up strong against the Wildcats.
If the Heels can manage to get the ball past the flyswatters, offensive rebounding will likely be a key ingredient in Carolina's winning formula. Coming into the game, Kentucky has not been as good of a defensive rebounding team, actually below average. Carolina averages 16.9 offensive rebounds per game and attacking the glass for missed offensive attempts would indicate a more hard-nosed and grittier style of play that UNC Coach Roy Williams and staff have been dying to see consistently on the court. The Heels will need all the extra effort plays and, I believe, offensive rebounding will be the perfect place to ignite production on the offensive end.
Carolina, all season long, has had a deeper bench advantage on its opposition; however, Saturday's game versus Kentucky is the exact opposite. The Heels have used a floating rotation of nine to ten players throughout the year, but the Wildcats use 12 guys with nine of those players averaging over 17.9 minutes/game. UK Coach John Calipari has the luxury this season of playing two full rotations of exceptionally talented athletes. As Tar Heel fans remember the classic "Blue Team" substitution used by Hall of Famer and legend Dean Smith (subbing in 5 scrappy players at once), Calipari does the same type of substitutions all game long. More recently, you know when you see Coach Williams get mad at his Carolina lineup on the court and he substitutes for all five men at the same time, well, Calipari does this as a "platoon" strategy...just because he can. Calipari will routinely sub five guys for five guys ensuring that all of his players are well rested down the stretch. Quite a testament to the type of recruits that the Kentucky coaching staff has reeled in to the University. It will be interesting to see if Calipari sticks with this substitution scheme after one of his team's leaders fell victim to a Torn ACL injury during practice Thursday afternoon.
Alex Poythress, Junior forward for the Wildcats, landed awkwardly on his left leg after a layup during a Thursday scrimmage, tearing his ACL, ending his season, and it has emotionally affected the whole Wildcats team. Poythress was averaging 5.5 pts/gm, 3.3 reb/gm, and 1.2 blocks/gm, an upperclassmen and someone the younger players on the team looked up too. Will the Wildcats be able to move past this disappointing loss only 48 hours after finding out the news? Only time will tell, but it is certain the Kentucky players are heartbroken. Rightfully so. Suite mate and best friend of Poythress, UK leading scorer (10.3 pts/gm) Cauley-Stein puts the Poythress loss in perspective when he says, "Nobody can make the plays that he makes. He's a freak athlete. (He) does special things you can't replace." Cauley-Stein continues, "So now we've got to figure out how to play differently. That's going to be the biggest thing is how we're going to play now, what lineups are we going to use if we still use the platoon system, and if we do, just make it work."
So, can the Heels capitalize on a Kentucky squad that will be tinkering with its lineup and bench substitutions? It may be the best time to strike. In order to pull off an incredible victory on the road, one must think that Carolina's leading scorer, Marcus Paige, needs to have a "Paige-like" game to really get his rhythm going. Yes, Paige leads the Heels in points per game (14.0 pts/gm). But, we have yet to see the dynamite, explosive scoring outbursts this year that Tar Heel fans in Chapel Hill and across the nation have grown accustomed to seeing. With both teams struggling so far from 3-point range (Carolina 28.0% and Kentucky 27.7%), Paige finding his shot in Lexington could do wonders for the Heels' chances in this one. Shot-blocking is Kentucky's claim to fame and one way to counteract the blocks is to avoid them. Shooting the basketball well from the outside could force the Wildcats into tighter half-court perimeter defense which would enable slashers like J.P. Tokoto and Justin Jackson to attack the rim with authority. Kentucky has been able to sink back on defense this year and clog up the lane, creating more opportunities for blocked shots. Expect perimeter shooters such as Paige, Nate Britt, Jackson, and even Tokoto to look for their shot early to see if they can catch fire against a top-tier Kentucky defense.
The Heels are no slouch on D, either. UNC ranks third in the ACC and fifth nationally in opponents' field goal percentage, at 33.5% (Kentucky is 1st in that category...told you the Wildcats were good). UNC is performing at one of its highest defensive levels in the Roy Williams-era. So far, in each of its eight games, the Tar Heels have limited opponents to an under-40% field-goal percentage. That is the longest such streak since Coach Williams donned the Carolina-blue jacket 12 years ago. Carolina must force Kentucky's perimeter into bad shots and, most importantly, turnovers. Turnovers could touch off a bevy of fast breaks and transition points that would put the Tar Heels in a much more comfortable position controlling the tempo and causing havoc for opposing offenses. Continuing this splendid defensive trend is absolutely not out of the question for the Heels, but it is going to take some muscle and physicality to push the Wildcats away from the basket and force them to shoot a higher dosage of perimeter shots (UK shoots 46.6% from 2-pt range and 27.7% from 3-pt range). The Wildcats are looking to do the same thing to the Heels (Carolina shoots 44.9% from 2-pt range and 28.0% from 3-pt range). In my opinion, whichever team can light it up from the outside on a more consistent basis, that will be the team that comes away the victor.
This will be the 37th meeting between the two schools. Carolina holds the all-time advantage with a 23-13 record over the Wildcats, including wins in seven of the last 10 matchups. Last year, Carolina beat Kentucky 82-77 behind an impressive game from Marcus Paige. Paige scored 21 points in the second half to combine with James Michael McAdoo and Tokoto as leading scorers for the Heels.
As I mentioned earlier, Kentucky ranks 1st and Carolina ranks 3rd in all-time NCAA victories. Kentucky has 2,150 wins to Carolina's 2,120 W's. Kansas is the other blue blood in the middle with 2,133. UK and UNC lead the stat sheet when it comes to the NCAA Tournament, as well. The basketball powerhouses top the list in NCAA Tournament appearances, games, and wins with UNC holding the record of 18 Final Four appearances.
Saturday will be a giant mountain for the Heels to climb on the road in Lexington. But, if it's one thing the Tar Heels have been in its history, that is...Giant Killers! If UNC can bring Clary's 5 P's to Rupp Arena...Poise, Pride, Passion, Perseverance, and Performance, another upset of a #1 could be in the making.
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